Avengers: Infinity War hits theaters in three weeks, which means we have the first industry tracking on its opening weekend. Infinity War is currently tracking to make anywhere from $175M to over $200M in its first three days. That tracking may go up over the next few weeks, but there is a reason we are seeing such a broad range in these initial projections.
Box office tracking gets a little shaky once opening weekend projections exceed $100M. The higher tracking goes over $100M, the less reliable it tends to be. There are not enough models for films opening close to or above $200M because it has not happened very often.
That is why we are seeing a very cautious, low-end projection of $175M in this tracking. That number, while huge, is not going to be seen as a major success for Infinity War. Most expect that the film will open over $200M domestically and beat Marvel Studios’ top two openings: The Avengers ($207.4M) and Black Panther ($202M).
Avengers: Infinity War already has more advanced ticket sales than any superhero film in Fandango history. It set the new record just six hours after tickets went on sale. That does not always correlate to the best opening weekend for a superhero movie, though it just did for the previous record holder, Black Panther.
How much do you think Avengers: Infinity War will make during its opening weekend? Let me see your predictions in the comments!