Source: 20th Century Fox

Deadpool 2 faces the challenge of living up to a wildly successful (and beloved) first film. We will have to wait until May 18 to see how Deadpool 2 meets that challenge in terms of quality, but its financial prospects already show some drop-off, if initial projections are to be believed.

Box Office Pro currently projects an opening of $100M for Deadpool 2, compared to $132.4M for Deadpool two years ago. They also have Deadpool 2 finishing at $242M domestic, which is way down from the first film’s $363M total in North America.

To be clear, this is not industry box office tracking. Films do not hit those tracking boards until they are only three weeks out from release. These projections come only from Box Office Pro and are based on their own models.

It would not be shocking, however, for Deadpool 2 to come in below the performance of its predecessor. Deadpool came out at a far less competitive time of year as a February release. Deadpool 2, meanwhile, is sandwiched between Avengers: Infinity War and Solo: A Star Wars Story.

Also, as a sequel, Deadpool 2 can never feel as fresh and new as the first film did, impressing audiences with its R-rated irreverence. Deadpool 2 can finish below its predecessor and still be considered a very successful film. It just can’t finish too far below.

SOURCE: Box Office Pro