Spider-Man: Homecoming is still a month away from hitting the tracking boards, but the box office predictions have already begun. Box Office Pro is projecting an opening weekend of $135 million. If it that projection proves to be true, it would be a major win for the new Sony and Marvel Studios partnership.
An opening frame of $135 million would be the biggest for the Spider-Man franchise since Spider-Man 3 hauled in $151.1 million a decade ago. It would easily surpass the opening weekends of the Amazing Spider-Man series starring Andrew Garfield. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 opened at $91.6 million in 2014, so you can bet Sony will be looking for a big Marvel Cinematic Universe bump from Spidey’s first solo adventure as part of Marvel Studios’ mega-franchise.
Predicting box office this far out, however, can be difficult. Box Office Pro projected $160 million in its long range forecast for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 several weeks before the film eventually opened at $146.5 million. Still, BOP got pretty close and there is plenty of reason why we should expect a very big opening for Spider-Man: Homecoming.
There is certainly potential for franchise fatigue with Spider-Man: Homecoming being the sixth film in the franchise since 2002, but being in the MCU should mitigate some of that. There’s also the Robert Downey, Jr. factor. Only once has a Marvel Studios film that prominently featured Downey as Iron Man opened below $100 million and that was the very first Iron Man in 2008, which still picked up $98.6 million.
Since then, the lowest Marvel opening with Downey is 2010’s Iron Man 2 ($128.1 million). All other Iron Man-inclusive films have opened above $174 million. Before anyone starts predicting an Avengers-level opening for Spider-Man: Homecoming, remember that Tony Stark might also be subject to a little franchise fatigue.
Homecoming will be the third consecutive summer audiences have seen Downey’s Stark. Since 2012, audiences have only spent a year without Stark once (2014). There may not be such a thing as overexposure when it comes to Downey, but if there is, Spider-Man: Homecoming might be the place we see it for the first time.
The answer to that potential issue might be Homecoming‘s fresh-faced star, Tom Holland, who won universal praise from critics and audiences when he debuted Captain America: Civil War last year. Holland succeeded in getting people excited about Spider-Man again and he’s becoming more popular by the minute, especially after an incredible Lip Sync Battle performance last week. He’s just too talented and too much fun for audiences to pass up.
Box Office Pro is probably going to end up being at least as close on Spider-Man: Homecoming as they were on Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. We’ll see what the official tracking says next month, but there should be little doubt that Spider-Man: Homecoming is going to open huge on July 7.